Job Market Paper
Strategic Environment:
Conservation Policies Effectiveness and Strategic Behavior
In this paper, I evaluate the environmental impacts of a conservation project funded by USAID in Eastern Zambia, which established protected areas within contracted chiefdom boundaries in partnership with local authorities. Leveraging satellite and administrative data merged at the 1km \(\times\) 1km grid level from 2001 to 2023, I employ a Difference-in-Differences strategy to estimate the program’s effects on deforestation across distinct regional groups. The results indicate a significant reduction in tree cover loss within Protected Areas, though no overall impact is observed at the chiefdom level. There is no evidence of leakage to Non-Protected Areas; however, I find positive spillover effects in Non-Contracted Chiefdoms located near protection boundaries. Heterogeneity analysis reveals that conservation effects were more pronounced in areas with greater infrastructure access and human presence. Additionally, I document selection bias in the placement of Protected Areas, which were more likely to be located in remote regions with lower baseline deforestation. These findings underscore the importance of accounting for spatial targeting and incentive structures in the design of effective conservation policies.
Working Papers
Population burdens of air pollution around the world:
Distributions, inequalities, and links to per capita GDP
with Jere Behrman, Emily Hannum, Oscar Morales, and Fan Wang
We analyze the global population-weighted distribution of air pollution by aerosols and its relationship to GDP per capita. We first decompose the global distribution and consider both variations across and within regions and countries. Second, we map national and subnational distributions of air pollution by aerosols to national and subnational distributions of GDP per capita. We find considerable global exposure inequalities. Comparing continents at the extremes, the average individual in Asia is 3.32 times more exposed to air pollution by aerosols than the average individual in Oceania. In Africa and Asia, populations at the 80percentile of the air pollution by aerosol distribution are 141% and 109% more exposed than population at the 20percentile, and those at the 90percentile are 227% and 185% more exposed those at the 10percentile. Globally, we find that a doubling of GDP per capita is associated with a 11.8 percentage points reduction in the percentage deviation between a subnational unit’s population-weighted air pollution by aerosol level and the global population-weighted mean. Within each continent, exploiting variabilities in subnational data after controlling for aggregate regional variabilities, we find positive associations between air pollution by aerosols and GDP per capita in Africa and Europe, but negative associations in the Americas, Asia, and Oceania.
Extreme Heat and Air Pollution Risks for Early Childhood Development in Latin America and the Caribbean
with Alexandre Bagolle, Jere R. Behrman, Florencia Lopez Boo, Emily Hannum, Joaquín Paseyro Mayol, Oscar Morales, Fan Wang
Draft Soon
Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) is characterized by high and unequal exposure to climatic and environmental hazards, with children under five being particularly vulnerable. Specifically, exposure to air pollution and extreme heat can exacerbate health risks: sudden temperature increases can lead to heat stroke, dehydration, and even death, while warmer temperatures heighten the transmission of vector-borne diseases. Extreme temperatures can also reduce food production quality and quantity, contributing to malnutrition. Air pollution is linked to thousands of child deaths annually and to a range of non-communicable diseases (e.g., asthma, cancer, neurodevelopmental and mental health disorders), which disproportionately affect poorer households and often have long-term effects. Exposure to poor air quality and rising temperatures can also deepen poverty, exacerbate inequalities, and have intergenerational impacts, potentially increasing conflicts over time. This report addresses the significant challenges faced by LAC due to extreme heat and air pollution exposure on early childhood development (in utero to age 5). First, it introduces a framework for understanding how exposure can impact various dimensions of early childhood development, such as birth outcomes, mental health, physical health, cognitive development, and physical growth. These effects are likely to interact dynamically over a child’s lifecycle, affecting development stages in early life and beyond age five, within an ecological framework that includes families, communities, services, and infrastructure, which may mediate or intensify these impacts. Second, by considering the spatial distribution of the child population, air pollution (PM 2.5), temperature (UTCI), and economic vulnerabilities in LAC, the report provides measures and rankings of climatic and pollution burdens for children across economies in the region. Finally, it presents evidence on the effects of climatic and pollution risks on child development under age five and concludes with policy recommendations for LAC.